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Suzanna de Baca's avatar

Great perspective, bob.

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Scott Lawton's avatar

That depends on the premise that Trump is running as an incumbent—which is reasonable enough to posit, but there are modifiers to that view.

He lost to Biden; he’s been out of office for four crucial years during which younger, smarter, and somewhat more honest candidates have arisen in his party. And what incumbent ever had to drag around such a ball and chain of prosecutions? He affects the pose of incumbency, but other facts are in play. Instead of being laughed off and forgotten, he wins.

So I don’t see a direct comparison to a hypothetical case of Biden facing similar percentages.

Furthermore, the Democrats have controlled their process to avoid unseemly comparisons between candidates, or the chance that Biden would lose his first nomination and now renomination. Didn’t they arrange it in such a way to disable other challengers after Bernie gave them a big scare? Then they simply drove life-long Democrat RFK, Jr. out of the party.

The Republicans are looking more democratic, which may work in their eventual favor.

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Robert Leonard's avatar

Good points, but to me nothing the Republicans are doing is furthering democracy. The "ball and chain of prosecutions," while troublesome to us, are a boon to his candidacy. His poll number are boosted as they pile up. He's also had nearly four years of conservative propaganda re-writing history, and much of the major media normalizing what he does. Yes, they disabled Bernie, but RFK, jr is a hot mess all on his own. Thanks for your thoughtful comment.

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John Mertz's avatar

Putting it into numbers (which I think are pretty correct) Trump "won" with 51

Putting it into numbers (which I think are pretty correct) Trump "won" 51

Putting this into numbers (which I think are pretty correct) Trump "won" 51% of the vote from only 14.1% of registered Republicans.

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Bob Shreck's avatar

Charlie Cook at Drake's Sheslow Auditorium on November 29th declared that Trump was the only Republican candidate that might lose to Biden--DeSantis or Haley would beat Biden handily.

Both New Hampshire and South Carolina stage open primaries so Dem's (and Ind's) can vote in the Rep event and much has been written about their doing so to oppose Trump and rob him of his impending coronation. But consider--if Cook is right and they are successful then they would have assured Biden's failure, so why would they do that?

But wait, upon further review would this not be a real life example of the proverbial two birds with one stone?

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Robert Leonard's avatar

I'm not sure that DeSantis could beat Biden, but I think Haley could. Problem is one of the birds is terrible, the other not.

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Joshua Doležal's avatar

Smart take, as usual, Bob.

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Kathi Zimpleman's avatar

Thanks, Bob. This story gives me hope. Thanks, too, for the link to the Star and giving your readers the chance to subscribe.

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Robert Leonard's avatar

Glad you liked it! thanks.

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Jim Sayers's avatar

What am curious about is the number of total attendees who declared themselves as Republicans at the door (Dems or Independents who chose to participate for the first time that night). Anecdotally I have heard there was a bit of that going on, specifically to vote against the former pres.

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Robert Leonard's avatar

I did see two people who I was pretty sure Democrats caucusing for Nikki.

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Lauren Tiffany's avatar

Thanks for calling it like it, Bob! I was sickened yesterday and today by state newspaper headlines about the 'historic' 'landslide' as Trump begins his journey to 'coronation.'

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Michael Judge's avatar

This brilliant piece on the Iowa caucuses is a must read. As always, great reporting and great writing. Leonard gets the story right, as usual. Unlike those who fly in and fly out in 24 hours. Bravo!

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Robert Leonard's avatar

Thanks Michael! I'm encouraging my subscribers to subscribe to your great work.

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Helen Boertje's avatar

The last Republican caucus I attended was the one in which Ronald Reagan became president. That was an entirely different crowd of Republicans from the ones who attended last night. I personally know many of the people who attended last night's caucus at Pella High. The fact that these individuals attended on such a cold night indicates something about them but not that Trump will be the inevitable choice.

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Robert Leonard's avatar

Thanks Helen!

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Peter Andrews's avatar

You give hope where hope is needed. This from an East Coaster who is stranded far from Iowa and understands little about your election reality. Thanks Bob

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Robert Leonard's avatar

Thank you friend!

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Denise OBrien's avatar

When I went to bed Monday night I was despondent about the so-called victory. I turned on my computer, glanced at what friends were saying and then looked at the numbers. My county is Cass in the southwestern part of the state. There are approximately 3400 active Republicans compared to 1140 active Dems. The total number of caucus attendees was 608. 375 voted for the ex president and 233 made other choices. That made me feel a lot better. I have been a life long resident of Atlantic and am relieved that I don't have to look at people I know and suspiciously wonder if they support a dictator.

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Robert Leonard's avatar

Thanks Denise! I wish we didn't have to wonder that anymore.

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Carol Van Klompenburg's avatar

I appreciate a different way of looking at it. Hope the rest of the media joins you.

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Candy Meier's avatar

Thank you for putting this in print. Trump hardly garnered the "landslide" he repeatedly proclaimed. 49% of the votes were split among other candidates. Together, they barely lost, just as Trump barely won. His mumbled congratulations to Ramaswamy for a "hell of a job" and calling for "unity" were weak attempts at showing things he sorely lacks: graciousness and humility, just to name two. It was, to put it in the vernacular, just plain phony. As a side note, I am weary of hearing the media consistently refer to Trump as "President Trump". If you say it often enough, people will believe it -- are they gaslighting? Keep pencil and paper handy, listen, and count. Thank you again for sharing your observations.

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Cathy Haustein's avatar

I hope you are healthy. That crowd looks glum and at least one person is blowing their nose.

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Robert Leonard's avatar

The crowd was subdued. Which is good...

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Pat Kinney's avatar

Hi Bob -- South Carolina is an open primary. You don't have to be registered with a party to participate in either primary. That will be the real test of any would-be credible intraparty opposition to the 45th president. Even then, though, he will probably protest that the primary was corrupted by crossover votes. Well, if he has that broad an appeal, he can pull crossovers in too -and brag about it if he wins..

But you could be right. I have noticed Mr. Trump's folks sometimes have chosen smaller venues for campaign events than during his previous runs. Different time, different office but I recall in the 1978 Democratic U.S. Senate primary Jerry Baker, an eccentric typewriter salesman and Mensa member from Cedar Falls, pulled double-digit percentage points against incumber U.S. Sen. Dick Clark. In fact, Baker and another candidate accounted for 20 percent of the vote. My late esteemed former colleague, Waterloo Courier political reporter Bob Case, said that if Baker could pull numbers like that, Clark was in trouble. Sure enough, Roger Jepsen unseated him that November.

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Robert Leonard's avatar

Thanks Pat, I didn't know that about South Carolina. And thanks for the history. I missed it. I started grad school at the University of Washington in Seattle in 78...

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