Mr. Leonard: You have confirmed observations that I have made. Around 110,000 individuals participated in the Republican caucuses on Monday night (January 15, 2024). Mr. Trump received about 56,000 votes. While that is around 50 percent, it is not as has been reported by the national news media, as well as by you. Thank you for your observations from Pella. They are informative and useful.
From my perspective as a old radio reporter, I continue to believe that the more important Iowa story at this time are the facts surrounding the shooting incident at Perry High School and the efforts of the Principal to prevent the actions of the 17 year old student. The Principal gave his life in an effort to save others. This is a great Iowa story and one which is in my opinion the lead for several days -- not a bunch of folks spending a lot of money chasing support which might not be there in November of 2024.
Thank you for putting this in print. Trump hardly garnered the "landslide" he repeatedly proclaimed. 49% of the votes were split among other candidates. Together, they barely lost, just as Trump barely won. His mumbled congratulations to Ramaswamy for a "hell of a job" and calling for "unity" were weak attempts at showing things he sorely lacks: graciousness and humility, just to name two. It was, to put it in the vernacular, just plain phony. As a side note, I am weary of hearing the media consistently refer to Trump as "President Trump". If you say it often enough, people will believe it -- are they gaslighting? Keep pencil and paper handy, listen, and count. Thank you again for sharing your observations.
Hi Bob -- South Carolina is an open primary. You don't have to be registered with a party to participate in either primary. That will be the real test of any would-be credible intraparty opposition to the 45th president. Even then, though, he will probably protest that the primary was corrupted by crossover votes. Well, if he has that broad an appeal, he can pull crossovers in too -and brag about it if he wins..
But you could be right. I have noticed Mr. Trump's folks sometimes have chosen smaller venues for campaign events than during his previous runs. Different time, different office but I recall in the 1978 Democratic U.S. Senate primary Jerry Baker, an eccentric typewriter salesman and Mensa member from Cedar Falls, pulled double-digit percentage points against incumber U.S. Sen. Dick Clark. In fact, Baker and another candidate accounted for 20 percent of the vote. My late esteemed former colleague, Waterloo Courier political reporter Bob Case, said that if Baker could pull numbers like that, Clark was in trouble. Sure enough, Roger Jepsen unseated him that November.
Thanks Pat, I didn't know that about South Carolina. And thanks for the history. I missed it. I started grad school at the University of Washington in Seattle in 78...
You give hope where hope is needed. This from an East Coaster who is stranded far from Iowa and understands little about your election reality. Thanks Bob
When I went to bed Monday night I was despondent about the so-called victory. I turned on my computer, glanced at what friends were saying and then looked at the numbers. My county is Cass in the southwestern part of the state. There are approximately 3400 active Republicans compared to 1140 active Dems. The total number of caucus attendees was 608. 375 voted for the ex president and 233 made other choices. That made me feel a lot better. I have been a life long resident of Atlantic and am relieved that I don't have to look at people I know and suspiciously wonder if they support a dictator.
When I was on the air at both WHO Radio and KRNT Radio, I attempted to follow the concept that what impacted the most listeners was the lead story. On one day that might have been a major traffic collision on the Freeway; on another it could have been a fire at an apartment complex just west of downtown Des Moines. The Perry incident has so many different aspects to it that in my opinion as much thoughtful and accurate reporting as possible and practicable is needed and necessary. Perhaps, the incident at Perry will be the one which will allow not just those of us who live in Iowa, but many other people to find ways to prevent similar episodes.
That depends on the premise that Trump is running as an incumbent—which is reasonable enough to posit, but there are modifiers to that view.
He lost to Biden; he’s been out of office for four crucial years during which younger, smarter, and somewhat more honest candidates have arisen in his party. And what incumbent ever had to drag around such a ball and chain of prosecutions? He affects the pose of incumbency, but other facts are in play. Instead of being laughed off and forgotten, he wins.
So I don’t see a direct comparison to a hypothetical case of Biden facing similar percentages.
Furthermore, the Democrats have controlled their process to avoid unseemly comparisons between candidates, or the chance that Biden would lose his first nomination and now renomination. Didn’t they arrange it in such a way to disable other challengers after Bernie gave them a big scare? Then they simply drove life-long Democrat RFK, Jr. out of the party.
The Republicans are looking more democratic, which may work in their eventual favor.
Good points, but to me nothing the Republicans are doing is furthering democracy. The "ball and chain of prosecutions," while troublesome to us, are a boon to his candidacy. His poll number are boosted as they pile up. He's also had nearly four years of conservative propaganda re-writing history, and much of the major media normalizing what he does. Yes, they disabled Bernie, but RFK, jr is a hot mess all on his own. Thanks for your thoughtful comment.
Charlie Cook at Drake's Sheslow Auditorium on November 29th declared that Trump was the only Republican candidate that might lose to Biden--DeSantis or Haley would beat Biden handily.
Both New Hampshire and South Carolina stage open primaries so Dem's (and Ind's) can vote in the Rep event and much has been written about their doing so to oppose Trump and rob him of his impending coronation. But consider--if Cook is right and they are successful then they would have assured Biden's failure, so why would they do that?
But wait, upon further review would this not be a real life example of the proverbial two birds with one stone?
What am curious about is the number of total attendees who declared themselves as Republicans at the door (Dems or Independents who chose to participate for the first time that night). Anecdotally I have heard there was a bit of that going on, specifically to vote against the former pres.
Thanks for calling it like it, Bob! I was sickened yesterday and today by state newspaper headlines about the 'historic' 'landslide' as Trump begins his journey to 'coronation.'
This brilliant piece on the Iowa caucuses is a must read. As always, great reporting and great writing. Leonard gets the story right, as usual. Unlike those who fly in and fly out in 24 hours. Bravo!
Smart take, as usual, Bob.
Mr. Leonard: You have confirmed observations that I have made. Around 110,000 individuals participated in the Republican caucuses on Monday night (January 15, 2024). Mr. Trump received about 56,000 votes. While that is around 50 percent, it is not as has been reported by the national news media, as well as by you. Thank you for your observations from Pella. They are informative and useful.
From my perspective as a old radio reporter, I continue to believe that the more important Iowa story at this time are the facts surrounding the shooting incident at Perry High School and the efforts of the Principal to prevent the actions of the 17 year old student. The Principal gave his life in an effort to save others. This is a great Iowa story and one which is in my opinion the lead for several days -- not a bunch of folks spending a lot of money chasing support which might not be there in November of 2024.
Thanks much George. I too think the Perry story is important and would love to know more. Hopefully they will release more information...
Thank you for putting this in print. Trump hardly garnered the "landslide" he repeatedly proclaimed. 49% of the votes were split among other candidates. Together, they barely lost, just as Trump barely won. His mumbled congratulations to Ramaswamy for a "hell of a job" and calling for "unity" were weak attempts at showing things he sorely lacks: graciousness and humility, just to name two. It was, to put it in the vernacular, just plain phony. As a side note, I am weary of hearing the media consistently refer to Trump as "President Trump". If you say it often enough, people will believe it -- are they gaslighting? Keep pencil and paper handy, listen, and count. Thank you again for sharing your observations.
Hi Bob -- South Carolina is an open primary. You don't have to be registered with a party to participate in either primary. That will be the real test of any would-be credible intraparty opposition to the 45th president. Even then, though, he will probably protest that the primary was corrupted by crossover votes. Well, if he has that broad an appeal, he can pull crossovers in too -and brag about it if he wins..
But you could be right. I have noticed Mr. Trump's folks sometimes have chosen smaller venues for campaign events than during his previous runs. Different time, different office but I recall in the 1978 Democratic U.S. Senate primary Jerry Baker, an eccentric typewriter salesman and Mensa member from Cedar Falls, pulled double-digit percentage points against incumber U.S. Sen. Dick Clark. In fact, Baker and another candidate accounted for 20 percent of the vote. My late esteemed former colleague, Waterloo Courier political reporter Bob Case, said that if Baker could pull numbers like that, Clark was in trouble. Sure enough, Roger Jepsen unseated him that November.
Thanks Pat, I didn't know that about South Carolina. And thanks for the history. I missed it. I started grad school at the University of Washington in Seattle in 78...
You give hope where hope is needed. This from an East Coaster who is stranded far from Iowa and understands little about your election reality. Thanks Bob
Thank you friend!
When I went to bed Monday night I was despondent about the so-called victory. I turned on my computer, glanced at what friends were saying and then looked at the numbers. My county is Cass in the southwestern part of the state. There are approximately 3400 active Republicans compared to 1140 active Dems. The total number of caucus attendees was 608. 375 voted for the ex president and 233 made other choices. That made me feel a lot better. I have been a life long resident of Atlantic and am relieved that I don't have to look at people I know and suspiciously wonder if they support a dictator.
Thanks Denise! I wish we didn't have to wonder that anymore.
I hope you are healthy. That crowd looks glum and at least one person is blowing their nose.
The crowd was subdued. Which is good...
When I was on the air at both WHO Radio and KRNT Radio, I attempted to follow the concept that what impacted the most listeners was the lead story. On one day that might have been a major traffic collision on the Freeway; on another it could have been a fire at an apartment complex just west of downtown Des Moines. The Perry incident has so many different aspects to it that in my opinion as much thoughtful and accurate reporting as possible and practicable is needed and necessary. Perhaps, the incident at Perry will be the one which will allow not just those of us who live in Iowa, but many other people to find ways to prevent similar episodes.
Great perspective, bob.
That depends on the premise that Trump is running as an incumbent—which is reasonable enough to posit, but there are modifiers to that view.
He lost to Biden; he’s been out of office for four crucial years during which younger, smarter, and somewhat more honest candidates have arisen in his party. And what incumbent ever had to drag around such a ball and chain of prosecutions? He affects the pose of incumbency, but other facts are in play. Instead of being laughed off and forgotten, he wins.
So I don’t see a direct comparison to a hypothetical case of Biden facing similar percentages.
Furthermore, the Democrats have controlled their process to avoid unseemly comparisons between candidates, or the chance that Biden would lose his first nomination and now renomination. Didn’t they arrange it in such a way to disable other challengers after Bernie gave them a big scare? Then they simply drove life-long Democrat RFK, Jr. out of the party.
The Republicans are looking more democratic, which may work in their eventual favor.
Good points, but to me nothing the Republicans are doing is furthering democracy. The "ball and chain of prosecutions," while troublesome to us, are a boon to his candidacy. His poll number are boosted as they pile up. He's also had nearly four years of conservative propaganda re-writing history, and much of the major media normalizing what he does. Yes, they disabled Bernie, but RFK, jr is a hot mess all on his own. Thanks for your thoughtful comment.
Putting it into numbers (which I think are pretty correct) Trump "won" with 51
Putting it into numbers (which I think are pretty correct) Trump "won" 51
Putting this into numbers (which I think are pretty correct) Trump "won" 51% of the vote from only 14.1% of registered Republicans.
Charlie Cook at Drake's Sheslow Auditorium on November 29th declared that Trump was the only Republican candidate that might lose to Biden--DeSantis or Haley would beat Biden handily.
Both New Hampshire and South Carolina stage open primaries so Dem's (and Ind's) can vote in the Rep event and much has been written about their doing so to oppose Trump and rob him of his impending coronation. But consider--if Cook is right and they are successful then they would have assured Biden's failure, so why would they do that?
But wait, upon further review would this not be a real life example of the proverbial two birds with one stone?
I'm not sure that DeSantis could beat Biden, but I think Haley could. Problem is one of the birds is terrible, the other not.
Thanks, Bob. This story gives me hope. Thanks, too, for the link to the Star and giving your readers the chance to subscribe.
Glad you liked it! thanks.
What am curious about is the number of total attendees who declared themselves as Republicans at the door (Dems or Independents who chose to participate for the first time that night). Anecdotally I have heard there was a bit of that going on, specifically to vote against the former pres.
I did see two people who I was pretty sure Democrats caucusing for Nikki.
Thanks for calling it like it, Bob! I was sickened yesterday and today by state newspaper headlines about the 'historic' 'landslide' as Trump begins his journey to 'coronation.'
This brilliant piece on the Iowa caucuses is a must read. As always, great reporting and great writing. Leonard gets the story right, as usual. Unlike those who fly in and fly out in 24 hours. Bravo!
Thanks Michael! I'm encouraging my subscribers to subscribe to your great work.