On Trump's "Historic" Iowa Caucus Win
The common media narrative is wrong...
I spent Monday evening at the Pella High School Gym for the Republican caucuses and wrote my thoughts on it for the Kansas City Star. Here it is. Last week I wrote a preview of the caucuses for them. I’ve told you I’m honored to be in the Star, one of our great newspapers.
You might hit a paywall, and if you do, I encourage you to subscribe if you can afford it. You won’t regret it—lots of great coverage in the Star that we can all learn from. I subscribe and find much of interest in the paper every day. I’ll share a bit of the article below.
I estimate that about 550 people caucused in the Pella gym.
While below is a highlight of the column, I encourage you to read the whole piece here.
It wasn’t a historic victory for Trump. The narrative is wrong. Much of the media is treating this like a normal caucus year when it’s not. Trump is essentially running as an incumbent, and 49% of Iowan Republican caucus-goers said they want someone else. The bloom is off the rose. It was even worse for Trump in conservative Pella. In the four precincts there, Trump received only 43%, 45%, 38% and 34% of the vote. This means that 57%, 55%, 62%, and 66% of conservative Pella Republicans wanted someone else but Trump. In rural Pella, Ron DeSantis beat Trump outright 32.2% to 31.8%.
Imagine if President Joe Biden as an incumbent had similar numbers in the caucuses, where 49% of Iowa Democratic caucus-goers wanted someone else? It would be reported as a clear defeat for Biden, and the party would likely be looking to coalesce around a different candidate, as has happened historically. You can’t have it both ways.
The soft underbelly of Donald Trump’s likely future general election campaign was exposed for all to see, yet much of the media missed it.
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Smart take, as usual, Bob.
Mr. Leonard: You have confirmed observations that I have made. Around 110,000 individuals participated in the Republican caucuses on Monday night (January 15, 2024). Mr. Trump received about 56,000 votes. While that is around 50 percent, it is not as has been reported by the national news media, as well as by you. Thank you for your observations from Pella. They are informative and useful.
From my perspective as a old radio reporter, I continue to believe that the more important Iowa story at this time are the facts surrounding the shooting incident at Perry High School and the efforts of the Principal to prevent the actions of the 17 year old student. The Principal gave his life in an effort to save others. This is a great Iowa story and one which is in my opinion the lead for several days -- not a bunch of folks spending a lot of money chasing support which might not be there in November of 2024.