Trump's Proposed Mass Deportations of Undocumented Children May Devastate Many of our Public Schools and Communities
A teacher wants to know the impacts...
Photo from Resistance in the Heartland: Fighting ICE in Small-Town Iowa and Nebraska
Background: Document the Atrocities
On Saturday I went down a dark path in considering the best and worst case scenarios of the implementation of Trump’s promise to quickly deport millions of undocumented people once he takes office. If you haven’t read it, you may want to read Document the Atrocities; the Time to Prepare is now before you continue.
Much of the scenario is informed by the fact that I served for maybe 10 years or more on our Local Emergency Planning Committee. With local first responders, the Iowa National Guard, and the Iowa State Patrol, with many of them being my friends, we performed table-top and real-world exercises planning for disasters. We planned and held exercises in preparation for disease outbreaks, mass shootings, terrorist attacks, and much, much more. For example, I learned how to pack a bullet wound in a simulation of a mass shooting unfolded in front of us from these first responders, and I respect them very much for working to make our communities safe.
I ran a draft of the column by a retired high-ranking military officer and several immigration experts. They think my worst case scenario offers a valuable perspective and should be considered seriously as the deportations unfold.
Since I would have to repost nearly all of the column to summarize it and my recommendations, I again suggest you read it here and then come back for the followup.
A Friend’s Comment
Lindsey Carlson is a dear friend who is a teacher at Knoxville, Iowa High School. She teaches Language Arts 2 and 3, American Literature, and Classics and their Contemporaries. She was my daughter’s favorite teacher. I asked her if she wanted to be named or if I should keep her post anonymous. Unlike many others, Lindsey won’t be silenced and “obey in advance” of an authoritarian threat. So here she is, posting:
“Non immigrant Americans will lose their jobs. I’m thinking of teaching staff who serve in districts with large immigrant populations. When the money for those students disappears with them, many districts will be forced to cut staff. Approximately every 10 students is a whole teaching position.”
I hadn’t thought of this important point, so I dug into it.
Claude AI Lends a Hand
This question deserves to be answered by a thoughtful person, but I have so many other uncompleted projects that instead of tackling it, I decided to ask Claude AI to go to work and provide a starting point for others to do more research.
My first request was to address the impacts nationally:
“Write an essay with references about the financial impact of undocumented elementary and secondary public school students being expelled from the school system. Be sure to estimate the impact on the schools without that funding.
Below is the response.
The Financial Impact of Excluding Undocumented Students from Public Schools
Introduction
The financial implications of excluding undocumented students from public education systems are complex and multifaceted, affecting both school districts' budgets and broader economic considerations. This analysis examines the potential financial impacts on school systems, considering both direct funding effects and operational implications.
Current Educational Landscape
Public schools in the United States are required to provide education to all children regardless of immigration status, as established by the Supreme Court case Plyler v. Doe (1982). Approximately 3.6% of K-12 students have undocumented immigration status, translating to roughly 1.8 million students nationwide (Pew Research Center, 2019).
Direct Financial Impact Analysis and Per-Pupil Funding Effects
Most states use average daily attendance (ADA) or enrollment-based funding formulas. Using national averages:
- Average per-pupil spending: $13,185 (National Center for Education Statistics, 2021)
- Estimated annual funding tied to undocumented students: $23.7 billion nationally
- Calculation: 1.8 million students × $13,185 per student
State-Level Impact Examples
Different states would face varying levels of impact based on their undocumented student populations:
1. California
- Estimated 250,000 undocumented K-12 students
- State per-pupil funding: $14,789
- Potential funding impact: $3.7 billion annually
2. Texas
- Estimated 218,000 undocumented K-12 students
- State per-pupil funding: $10,342
- Potential funding impact: $2.25 billion annually
Operational Implications for Schools and Fixed Cost Considerations
Schools face relatively inflexible fixed costs that wouldn't decrease proportionally with student population reductions:
1. Facility Maintenance
- Building operations costs remain largely constant
- Utilities and maintenance requirements don't scale linearly with student population
2. Staff Salaries
- Teacher contracts typically set before academic year
- Administrative staff requirements remain relatively stable
- Estimated 75-80% of school budgets are personnel-related (American Association of School Administrators)
Programmatic Effects
The reduction in overall funding would likely impact:
- Special programs and electives
- Support services
- Educational resources and materials
- Extra-curricular activities
Economic Ripple Effects and Federal Funding Impact
Schools would see reductions in:
- Title I funding
- Free and reduced lunch program allocations
- English Language Learner (ELL) support funding
Employment Considerations
Based on typical student-teacher ratios and support staff requirements:
- Estimated 100,000 teaching positions potentially affected
- Approximately 50,000 support staff positions at risk
- Annual salary impact: $7.5 billion (based on average teacher salary of $65,090)
Long-term Financial Implications and District Planning Challenges
Schools would face:
- Difficulty in long-term budget forecasting
- Reduced ability to plan capital improvements
- Potential bond rating impacts
- Increased per-student costs due to reduced economies of scale
Community Economic Impact
Research indicates potential long-term effects:
- Reduced local economic activity
- Decreased property values in affected areas
- Lower tax base for future school funding
Conclusion
The exclusion of undocumented students from public schools would result in significant financial disruption to educational systems. While the immediate impact would be a reduction in funding of approximately $23.7 billion nationally, the operational realities of school systems mean that cost reductions would not scale proportionally with student population decreases. Schools would face challenging decisions regarding resource allocation, staffing, and program offerings, potentially affecting educational quality for remaining students.
*Note: Due to the sensitive nature of this topic and limitations in available data, some figures are based on estimates and projections from available research. Additionally, actual impacts would vary significantly by region and specific school district characteristics.*
*References used in this analysis are from publicly available sources including the National Center for Education Statistics, Pew Research Center, and various state departments of education. Given my knowledge cutoff date, some figures may need to be updated with more current data.*
I then asked Claude AI: what are the impacts on Iowa specifically? Below are the results.
The Financial Impact of Excluding Undocumented Students from Public Schools
[Previous sections remain the same...]
Iowa-Specific Impact Analysis and Current Educational Context
Iowa's public education system operates with:
- State per-pupil funding: $7,598 (Iowa Department of Education, 2023)
- Supplemental State Aid (SSA): Additional weighted funding for specific student needs
- Property tax levies that supplement state funding
Demographic Impact
Based on available estimates:
- Total K-12 enrollment: Approximately 485,000 students
- Estimated undocumented student population: 8,000-10,000 students (1.6-2.1% of total enrollment)
- Primary concentrations in:
- Des Moines metro area
- Sioux City
- Waterloo/Cedar Falls
- Marshalltown
- Storm Lake
Direct Financial Impact and State Funding Reduction
- Basic per-pupil funding loss: $60.8 - $76 million annually
- Calculation: 8,000-10,000 students × $7,598 per student
- Additional categorical funding loss: $12-15 million
- English Language Learner supplements
- At-risk student allocations
- Transportation assistance
District-Level Effects
Particular impact on districts with higher concentrations of undocumented students:
1. Des Moines Public Schools
- Estimated impact: $18-22 million annually
- Potential staff reduction: 180-220 positions
2. Sioux City Community School District
- Estimated impact: $8-10 million annually
- Potential staff reduction: 80-100 positions
3. Storm Lake Community School District
- Proportionally higher impact due to smaller district size
- Estimated impact: $3-4 million annually
- Could threaten viability of certain programs and services
Operational Considerations and Staffing Implications
- Estimated teacher position reduction: 400-500 statewide
- Support staff reductions: 200-250 positions
- Special program staff (ELL, etc.): 75-100 positions
Program Impact
1. English Language Programs
- Reduced funding for ELL teachers
- Decreased support for remaining ELL students
- Potential elimination of some language support programs
2. Special Education Services
- Reduced economies of scale
- Higher per-student costs for remaining students
- Potential consolidation of services
3. Extra-curricular Activities
- Particularly impacted in smaller districts
- Potential elimination of some sports programs
- Reduced funding for arts and music programs
Economic Ripple Effects and Community Impact
- Reduced economic activity in affected communities
- Especially significant in smaller towns like Storm Lake and Marshalltown
- Potential property value effects in highly impacted districts
- Reduced local business activity due to population decrease
Long-term Implications
1. District Consolidation Pressure
- Smaller districts may become financially unviable
- Increased pressure for district mergers
- Higher transportation costs for remaining students
2. Educational Quality
- Larger class sizes in remaining programs
- Reduced program diversity
- Limited advanced placement and specialty course offerings
Mitigation Challenges
Iowa schools would face particular challenges due to:
- Rural nature of many districts
- Limited alternative funding sources
- Fixed costs that can't be reduced proportionally
- Existing teacher shortage issues
- Transportation requirements in consolidated districts
Conclusion
The exclusion of undocumented students from Iowa's public schools would result in an annual funding reduction of $73-91 million when accounting for both basic per-pupil funding and categorical supplements. This impact would be particularly severe in specific districts with higher concentrations of undocumented students, potentially forcing significant programmatic changes and staffing reductions. The rural nature of many Iowa districts would make adapting to these changes particularly challenging, potentially accelerating district consolidation trends and affecting educational quality for remaining students.
[Previous references remain the same...]
This is the worst case scenario for our public schools. We need to prepare for it. It will also impact our private schools, and the broader economy. Consider the fact that if the children are deported their parents will be also, with additional economic impact. The situation may also be worse because Republicans will likely propose property tax reform that could hurt schools and local municipalities in the next legislative session. In the 2025-26 school year there will also be no income limits on Education Savings Accounts, which will further impact funding for our public schools.
It’s a perfect storm.
In Document the Atrocities, I wrote:
“While I present the worst-case scenario as a means of preparation, it’s important for those who will be observing deportations unfold not to overreact. Democrats often paint a picture of doom and gloom regarding Republican policies, and when the outcomes aren’t as bad as Democrats predicted, Republicans claim victory, even if their policies caused great harm. But we can document what’s happening in real-time to try to avoid any possible outcomes leading up to the worst-case scenario.”
I should also note that we shouldn’t allow them to claim victory because when they fall short of attaining their radical goals, it’s only because Democrats and the general public stopped them.
As I wrote in Document the Atrocities, if the scenario is wrong and we prepared for it, there are few consequences other than time wasted. However, is the scenario is correct, or even half correct, the consequences will be devastating and we won’t be able to respond appropriately as it unfolds. Our lack of preparation now will make the harm done even worse in the coming months and years.
Beyond the economic and educational consequences, the mental health consequences will be tremendous.
Thnking about the children to be deported, the mental health impacts will be severe. There may also be physical risk if they are deported to countries that are dangerous.
There will also be mental health impacts on the children who remain behind. They will have to deal with the fact their friends disappeared into thin air, never to be seen again.
Iowa State Senator Joni Ernst recently told high school students in Storm Lake that there will not be mass deportations in their community. Let’s hope she’s right, but let’s be clear—Senator Ernst and no other Republican Senator has ever had the power to reign in Donald Trump and there is no reason to believe she will be able to do so now. But maybe the agriculture industry can. They are lobbying Trump for their workers to be exempt.
My friend and fellow Iowa Writers Collaborative member Pat Kinney tells me:
“the Iowa Roman Catholic bishops have issued the following letter in solidarity with immigrants:
https://www.dmdiocese.org/news/bishops-offer-letter-to-immigrant-community
The letter was published in English and Spanish.
In Waterloo there will be a "Penitential Rosary for Immigrants" 7 p.m. nightly Dec. 3-11 at Queen of Peace Catholic Church, 320 Mulberry Street in downtown Waterloo. A large portion of the Waterloo-Cedar Falls area's Latino/immigrant population attend church at Queen of Peace.
"The prophetic voice of the Church cannot be silent in the midst of the uncertainties and fears facing our immigrant brothers and sisters," Queen of Peace pastor Father Nils Henandez wrote in an explanation for the service, published here.”
Thanks Pat!
I’m a proud member of the Iowa Writers’ Collaborative. Please check out our work here. Subscribe! Become a paid subscriber if you can afford it. Please and thank you. We need you. Thanks for being part of the team! Want to buy me lunch or a cup of coffee? Venmo @Robert-Leonard-238. My friend Spencer Dirks and I have a podcast titled the Iowa Revolution. Check it out! We can get ornery. And have fun! I also publish Cedar Creek Nature Notes, about Violet the Dog and my adventures on our morning walks at Cedar Bluffs Natural Area in Mahaska County, Iowa.
We are going to have a holiday party for paid subscribers!
Where: Harkin Institute on the campus of Drake University, 2800 University Ave., Des Moines
When: December 13, 5-8 p.m.
What: Appetizers, a short program, and great conversation.
Click here to RSVP.
Robert Leonard’s worst case scenario looks like exactly what Republicans want - the destruction of public education.
Iowans who lived in NE Iowa during the Postville raids, arrests, and deportations have witnessed what happened to families, children, schools, businesses..to society. Fortunately, during those raids, Culver/Judge supported the efforts of many of their cabinet (I helped lead it) to ameliorate the impact. But most people do not know this--it was only 16? years ago. Books have been written on Postville, but none of the books captured what was happening in NE Iowa, when the largest employer in a 50 mile radius, closed down. Iowa govt. helped significantly; probably many people in NE Iowa voted for Trump, forgetting about what happened.